Elements of Future Development Policy

Following the conclusion of the war in Lebanon, and as the impact of a regional 'peace' becomes clear, it is necessary for the state to determine a medium- and long- range development policy, taking past experiences into account. This must determine the goals and the means of development policy on three levels: the general, the sectoral, and the regional.

The Goals and Means of Development
Policy on the General Level

1. A modernization of Lebanon's economic regime must occur, relying on the creative initiative of Lebanese individuals and groups, and on a balancing role for the state. The state's role must aim to coordinate these creative initiatives and prepare future expectations for economic development. For this to take place, national solidarity and guided planning is required. Likewise, it is necessary to remove all obstacles to freedom of initiative.

2. Stable and cumulative growth must be provided for national production.

3. Sectoral, regional and social distribution of revenues must be improved in a framework of a policy of social justice that aims to provide citizens with basic needs, especially in health, education, and housing, and that lifts the obstacles to social and economic improvement for groups with limited income.

4. Regional social and economic disparities must be decreased through the establishment of suitable axes of regional development, the modification of these axes, and by supplying regions with all of their daily needs, in order to prevent chaotic rural-urban migration and emigration.

5. The role of all economic sectors must be re-balanced, by developing the potential of goods-producing sectors, by modernizing the services sectors to serve production and increase the standard of living, and by adjusting the economy's external orientation to the regional and international changes that have occurred since 1975.

6. Rational and planned investment in the country's national resources must be provided.

7. Lebanon's human capital, which is the basis of its economic wealth, must be mobilized through a series of measures, the most important of which are:

• preparing and organizing the return of the displaced to their homes;
• fighting the 'brain drain', and effecting its reversal;
• implementing policies in the fields of education and scientific and technological research, to raise intellectual, technological and educational levels, thus compensating for the decline since 1975.
• enacting all measures and policies with the goal of bringing about a return of emigrants.

8. Efforts must be concentrated on the development of production in branches and products in which Lebanon enjoys a comparative advantage, resulting from its geographic location, traditions, and natural and human potential.

9. Lebanon must decrease its dependence on the outside by developing internal economic integration among sectors, regions, and through Arab economic cooperation.

Sectoral Goals and Means

While the rehabilitation of the industrial, agricultural, and services sectors requires a large number of measures, we can list a few vital goals and means which will need to be implemented or pursued in the future in each sector:

The Industrial Sector:

1. The industrial sector suffered serious damage due to the war that shut down 40% of industrial production capacity. Economic policy must therefore give priority to rebuilding or equipping industries that were destroyed or damaged. A rehabilitated industrial sector would provide employment opportunities and would have a positive impact on Lebanon's balance of payments. This would help to decrease demand for imports and increase demand for exports.
2. Economic policy must give priority to branches of the economy concerned with producing local primary goods, because of their contribution to exploiting natural resources. This would lead to a decrease in exports of primary goods, an increase in the value added of Lebanese exports, and would improve Lebanon's foreign payment situation.
3. Likewise, Lebanon must strive to link its industrial sector to its agricultural sector, either through developing industries that convert agricultural products or through developing industries that produce intermediate agricultural products such as fertilizer, insecticides, agricultural equipment, irrigation equipment, etc. This will contribute to integration among economic sectors, will increase the value of exports, and will encourage Lebanon to provide import substitutes.
4. Lebanon must provide industries that produce equipment and intermediate goods with special assistance, because their existence decreases external dependence, provides regional and sectoral integration, exploits national potential and resources, and improves the balance of payments situation.
5. Industrial development must contribute to developing the various regions of the country, by establishing well-equipped industrial centers in the countryside which will help in its development.
   

The Agricultural Sector:

1. The area of Lebanon's currently cultivated lands must be expanded.
2. Lebanon must concentrate on food production for local consumption, because this contributes positively to the balance of payments and decreases external food dependency.
3. Agricultural policy must pay more attention to rapid deforestation, in order to preserve sources of agricultural wealth, such as soil and water, and save on the importation of timber and wood products.
4. The Agricultural Development Bank must be made more effective, in order to provide suitable loans to the agricultural sector.
5. Animal production and fishing wealth must be developed and better exploited in order to provide basic food resources and some primary industrial materials, especially since animal products form an important part of Lebanon's imports.
6. The technical level of producers in the agricultural sector must be raised, as a fundamental factor in the development of production. Likewise, agricultural research must contribute to the development of new sources of agricultural activity.
7. Cooperatives must be improved in order that they may provide the best conditions for marketing agricultural production, and for providing intermediate goods and financial and technical services to farmers.
8. Land must be provided to small farmers as a necessary condition to tie them to their land.
   

The Services Sector:

1. Concerning internal and external transportation, Lebanon must rebuild, rehabilitate, and complete road networks, in order to link all villages and population concentrations. Likewise, railroad lines must be repaired and modernized. Lebanon must concentrate on modernizing its commercial and tourist ports and developing Lebanon's merchant fleet, because this will provide employment opportunities and revenues, and will improve the balance of payments situation.
2. Lebanon's electronic phone system must be expanded throughout the country because it provides rapid links among all regions and groups, and postal and telex services must be improved.
3. In the area of housing, Lebanon must quickly rebuild homes that were damaged and destroyed by the war, and follow an active housing policy, including either lower-income housing or housing loans.
4. In the tourism and resort sector, Lebanon must renovate, rebuild, and re-equip the institutions that were damaged by the war. A policy must be followed aiming to encourage tourism for middle-income groups.
5. With regard to educational services, Lebanon must universalize compulsory and free education, and develop vocational and technical training, and link educational planning to general development planning.
6. Concerning social and health services, Lebanon must expand the scope of social and health insurance to include small merchants, artisan, labourers, and small- and medium - scale farmers. It must also speed up the creation and expansion of special vocational institutions for the handicapped in order to re-integrate them into society, both socially and economically.
7. Concerning financial organizations, Lebanon must work to direct them more towards financing construction and development by allowing them to mobilize Lebanon's savings, both inside and outside the country, for development goals.
   

Regional Goals and Means

The South:

1. The state must engage in immediate renovation and rebuilding of housing, facilities, and public utilities in the South that were destroyed by the war, and must provide for the return of all the displaced to their former places of residence as soon as possible.
2. Implementation of irrigation projects on the Hasbani and Litani rivers must be speeded up in order to develop agriculture, especially food-stuffs, thus raising citizens' income. This will help tie them to their land, increase national agricultural production, and improve the balance of payments.
3. Industries to finance tobacco production must be set up in the South in order to save on imports and strengthen exports. This represents a vital model for the linking of agriculture to industry and for creating industrial centers in rural areas.
4. The port of Sidon must be developed as a regionally important commercial port, decreasing the burden on the port of Beirut, and contributing to activating economic life in Sidon and the South, and tying it to the interior and to Arab countries by means of an international highway. These measures will help revitalize the city and its environs.
   

The Biqa`:

1. Among the priorities required by the Biqa` is the renovation and construction of housing and public utilities, the return of the displaced to their places of residence, and the re-activation of agricultural, industrial and animal production facilities that were destroyed or damaged, so that they can return to their previous level of activity.
2. Irrigation projects must be speeded up and completed in the southern Biqa`, while irrigation projects in the northern Biqa` - using the Orontes River - must be initiated; this will increase agricultural production, raise farmers' income, and tie them to the land.
3. An industrialization policy must be set concentrating on establishing industrial areas that will act as centers for development in the southern and northern Biqa`, and that will be tied partially to agricultural production in the surrounding areas.
4. Reforestation of the foot of the mountains surrounding the Biqa` on its eastern and western sides must be undertaken, in order to be able to develop water and timber wealth and preserve the soil. Developing animal production at the foot of these mountains would be the best way to utilize the mountains' productive capabilities, and perhaps of its inhabitants' energies.
5. It would be useful for an agricultural faculty of the Lebanese University to be opened in the Biqa`, in order to achieve the ideal tie between agricultural education and proximity to a rural agricultural area.
   

The North:

1. Irrigation projects - especially those in Koura, al-Zawiyyeh, and Akkar - must be speeded up and completed in order to increase citizens' income and tie them to the land.
2. In the central regions that cannot be irrigated in an economical way, namely the Batroun, Koura, al-Zawiyyeh, Akkar, and al-Dinniyyeh regions, it would be appropriate to develop dry agricultural, especially involving trees whose products - almonds, olives, grapevines, carobs, etc. - Lebanon currently imports.
3. Likewise, it would be appropriate to encourage light and medium industry in the central regions and the hinterland, since this would employ the labour force and develop local sources of wealth, especially if these areas suffer from rural-urban migration, as is the case in the qada's of Batroun, Bsharri, al-Zawiyyeh, Akkar, and Tripoli.
4. It would be useful to expand and diversify crude oil refining and petrochemical production in the North (such as the third refinery project in Batroun and the Tripoli refinery), because this would provide a nucleus for industrial development.
5. It is also necessary to provide increased aid to the fringe areas of the North, such as the qada's of Akkar and Batroun, in particular, because of their lack of public services and the weakness of their productive capacities. This could include irrigation and reforestation projects, developing animal production, industrializing agricultural production, encouraging small - and medium-scale industries, exploring for natural resources, and developing tourist and resort facilities in the center and hinterland.
6. The port of Tripoli and land transport services leading to it - including international highways and railroad lines - must be developed; not to mention other services tied to port activities. This would serve to invigorate economic life in the North and relieve the burden on the port of Beirut.
7. Tourist institutions and facilities must be developed, especially those catering to middle-income groups, since the North is rich in unexploited tourist potential.
   

Mount Lebanon:

1. As in other regions, it is a priority to rebuild or rehabilitate housing, public utilities, and economic facilities that were destroyed or damaged during the war, and to return the displaced to their areas of residence.
2. The fringe areas of the muhafaza must be aided, namely the qada's of Jubayl and the Shouf, by establishing industrial centers or encouraging small and medium industry in the central areas and the hinterland. Dry agriculture should be encouraged in the central areas.
3. Tourism and resort facilities must be developed, especially for middle-income groups, especially in areas which enjoy un-exploited tourist potential.
   

Beirut:

Beirut must regain a portion of the activity that it lost due to the economic decentralization imposed by the war. Lebanon should achieve balanced geographical distribution between economic activity in the capital and in various outlying areas, which will decrease the social cost of excessive centralization while limiting the waste caused by the scattering of these activities during the war.

1. The rebuilding of the capital's downtown commercial center must be a priority because the area is a meeting-place for Lebanese, an a regional economic center in terms of services. Reconstruction in this area must also seek to develop its tourist potential.
2. The state must renovate the port of Beirut and the airport.
3. Adequate telephone, fax, and telex services must be provided throughout the capital area as a necessary measure for the city to recover its regional economic role.
4. Banking services must be diversified, which will allow the city to regain its regional financial role.
5. The hotel and tourism sector must be rebuilt
6. The displaced must be returned to their pre-war places of residence. this is of the utmost necessity in returning Beirut to its role as a center of creative coexistence for all Lebanese and as a symbol of Lebanon's unity.
   

*Boutros Labaki is an economic historian. He is also a vice president of the Council for Development and Reconstruction