A half-hour's drive from Paris in the direction of Eurodisney, one reaches Crecy-la-Chapelle, from where a small road leads across the empty countryside to La Haute-Maison. It is here, surrounded by deafening silence, that lives one of the most interesting and contradictory of Lebanese political figures. A security check later, one is in the inconspicuous presence of Michel Aoun.

Some time ago, the poet Sa'id 'Aql, angered at General Aoun's willingness to conceive of a federal system in Lebanon, declared the former army commander dead. Still, the general's destiny since his exile from Beirut has been to do all he can to remain alive and relevant, even if only politically. Too dead for some, too alive for others, the general has often had to affirm his presence by lashing out in incomprehensible ­ even self-destructive ­ directions, like a man searching for his bearings.

Discussing politics with General Aoun is a good way of getting an insight into his character. In reality, the public and private facets of the general's personality seem to be hopelessly tied up one with the other, so that politics have become for him something overwhelmingly subjective. When asked what Aounism is, the general responds: "It is Man!" Once the initial surprise wears off, one begins to see in the statement a revealing explanation for both the strength and weakness of that vague current the general has been leading - and riding - since 1989: strength, because rare has been the successful political movement which has not centered on Man; and weakness, because Man - even Aounist Man - is undisciplined, and requires a structure to impose on him a sense of direction and purpose.

Yet when one asks the general whether he intends to organize his movement, the response is lukewarm: an organizational structure is easier for opponents to break up, he remarks. The real answer, however, becomes more evident later on when, in discussing the forthcoming parliamentary elections, the general notes his wariness that some of his partisans in Lebanon may cut a deal with the state. The divisions between the Aounists in Lebanon and outside are perhaps no worse than in any other political movement, but they are real. One notable and vivacious Aounist with electoral ambitions is already believed to have contacted the parties that count in such matters to try to secure a parliamentary seat somewhere, preferably in Beirut.

Will the Aounists participate in parliamentary elections or not? That is, of course, if elections actually take place, which is far from certain. The general responds with four conditions that need to be met: an equitable election law; the formation of a representative government to organize elections; the timely publication of voters' lists; and the freedom to organize political campaigns. The demands hardly seem excessive, all the more reason why they can be quietly ignored if the general decides that it is in his movement's best interest to participate in elections whatever the costs. For the moment, the Aounists ­ united under the umbrella of the Lebanese National Congress (LNC) - have yet to take a final decision on participation.

What is more interesting, however, is the news from within the movement that even if President Hrawi's controversial two-tier election proposal is adopted (see Politics), the Aounists will participate at least in the first round. If this is the case, it would expose a surprising lack of clarity in achieving two of the general's stated objectives: namely reducing the credibility of the electoral process by encouraging a low voter turnout; and avoiding Aounist candidates from being co-opted by the state, which will be doubly difficult once they reach the second round of voting for a national list.

Despite these apparent contradictions, what allows General Aoun to continue to play a political role is his uncanny capacity to remain popular (in all senses of the word). In a way the general remains because he is like everybody else. His efforts to appear grandiose - even Gaullien - rarely come off successfully because, in the end, he is someone with a simple, even attractive, vision which, for all its shortcomings, corresponds to the views of many Lebanese. It would be wrong, however, to assume that many Lebanese follow Aoun; quite the contrary: it is Aoun who follows the Lebanese, who speaks like them and thinks like them, to the extent that, unlike most other politicians, he remains one of them.

This is hardly the place to pass judgement on Aounism, or even to try to determine what impact the movement will have on political life in Lebanon. In reality, neither the general's supporters nor anybody else in the country will have much of a say in its future for some time. Through their actions, however, the Aounists have come to symbolize - like many other groupings - the fate of an opposition thrown into a series of labyrinths from which it is having difficulty emerging from. Does this diminish the need for an opposition today? No. Does it suggest that an effective opposition will emerge anytime soon? Again the answer must be no.