In late January, the president, Elias Hrawi, proposed an electoral system that, if adopted, could undermine the well-being of Lebanese parliamentary democracy. President Hrawi's proposal appeared to take virtually everybody by surprise, including the prime minister, Rafiq al-Hariri, and the speaker of parliament, Nabih Birri. While the members of the leadership troika almost certainly had discussed the proposal between themselves, the timing of its announcement appeared to have been decided upon by the president in coordination with Syria, which very likely was responsible for initiating the proposal.

President Hrawi's proposal calls for a two-tier election system in which candidates would stand for elections in the first round at the level of the qada', before going on to a second round in which all Lebanon would vote as a single electoral district. At the end of the first round, several candidates for each seat - perhaps the top two or three vote-getters - would be eligible to go on to the second round. At that stage, they would re-form into two or three competing national lists of 128 members (the same as the number of deputies in parliament) or less, according to the required religious and regional distribution. A second round of voting would then be held nationally with one of the lists winning by a simple majority vote. One variation on this has been that national lists, to win outright in the second round, must gain at least 60% of the vote, in the absence of which a third round would be scheduled on the basis of a simple majority.[2]

There are two major dangers in the Hrawi proposal: the first is the simple majority clause which would allow a list with just over 50% of the vote to win all parliamentary seats. This would effectively remove all opposition from parliament. The second danger - and it is here that the motive behind the Hrawi proposal must be sought - is that the only actor which has the power to cobble together a 128-member national list is Syria. The law would for the foreseeable future, further consolidate Syrian control over Lebanon and marginalize Syria's potential opponents in the country. It is not the first time that the Syrians float a Lebanon-as-one-election-district proposal: they did it in a far more delicate way last year when the deputy speaker of parliament, Elie Firzli, after meeting with the head of Syrian military intelligence in Lebanon, Ghazi KanŒan, declared that he thought Lebanon should vote as one district.

Where the proposal stands

Whether President Hrawi's proposal is adopted or not, the fact that it was presented at all suggested the extent to which Syria has been willing to challenge the foundations of Lebanon's political system. There is little doubt that when it was floated, the proposal was serious. Official reaction to it, however, mostly varied between critical and cool. In mid-March, persistent reports suggested that the Hrawi proposal had been quietly dropped in favor of elections at the muhafaza level. There has also been discussion of several modified muhafaza proposals, whereby the objective would be to protect Walid Junblat and weaken the Christian opposition in Mount Lebanon. Several officials, including the prime minister, Rafiq al-Hariri, declared that a new election law would be made public by mid-April, and some observers refused to rule out the Hrawi proposal.

Will elections indeed take place? In early March, reports from Damascus suggested that Parliament's mandate may be extended because of the uncertain regional situation provoked by the suicide bombings in Israel and the Israeli general elections (see above). The assumption is that Damascus, eager to avoid any destabilization in Lebanon which could adversely affect its regional stature, may choose to put off parliamentary elections, much as it did the presidential election last year.

The extension scenario may well please the members of the leadership troika: President Hrawi, whose mandate was extended for three years, would not be unhappy ­ if only from the point of view of legitimacy ­ to see the same thing happen to parliament. The parliament speaker, Nabih Birri, could also be expected to go along, particularly if the Syrian-Israeli deadlock leads to a consolidation of Hizballah's influence in south Lebanon; Mr. Birri almost certainly fears that this could be reflected in a larger number of Hizballah candidates on an election list which he heads. Finally, the prime minister, Rafiq al-Hariri, may see something attractive in the proposal given that he has been unable to gain widespread political support in Beirut, particularly among traditional Sunni families. According to a report in the al-Safir daily, President Hrawi has even proposed to Mr. Hariri that he not stand for elections in Beirut since, although he would likely win a seat for himself, his position coming out of the elections could be weakened.[3]

Is a situation developing in which Syria is allowing itself the choice between two potentially agreeable options, an extended mandate for parliament or an election law that consolidates its influence over Lebanon? The widespread dissatisfaction with the Hrawi proposal may have permanently crippled it, although Syria has rarely hesitated to implement unpopular decisions. Yet even if the muhafaza proposal is adopted as law, a final decision on whether elections are to be held will come after the Israeli elections in May, and the subsequent progress, or lack of progress, in the Syrian-Israeli negotiations.

Notes

2. Mr. Hrawi's proposal appeared to have been inspired by that of a university professor from Zahleh, Fayez Haj Shahin. The reaction to the president's proposal has been overwhelmingly negative, and was best expressed at a conference on the proposal held by Dr. Haj Shahin, at the Lebanese University. The Hrawi proposal, by focusing attention on a national list, revived an earlier proposal for elections to be held on the basis of a modified German model: in other words a proportion of deputies would be elected on the basis of the constituency, while another proportion would be elected on the basis of Lebanon as one electoral district. Candidates from the national lists would be elected on a proportional basis. The intention of the plan is to encourage politicians, parties, or other organizations to prepare national platforms and form national lists as the first step towards a unified electorate. The plan was prepared by ŒIsam Suleiman of the Lebanese University; among its most outspoken supporters has been Paul Salem, director of the LCPS.

3. Very probably it is Mr. Hrawi himself who leaked the story to the paper.