A Framework for Reducing the Lebanese Budget Deficit

Table of Contents | Report: Part I

Table 1
( in LL Billions)
Revenues
Expenditures
Deficit
Actual
Budget
Actual/ Budget
Actual
Budget
Actual/ Budget
Actual
Budget
Actual/ Budget
1997
Jan-Sep
2,719
4,100
66%
5,883
6,400
92%
3,164
2,300
138%
1996
3,534
4,025
88%
7,288
6,458
113%
3,754
2,433
154%
1995
3,033
3,150
96%
5,856
5,630
104%
2,823
2,480
114%
1994
2,241
2,246
100%
5,204
4,106
127%
2,963
1,860
159%
1993
1,855
1,701
109%
3,017
3,400
89%
1,162
1,699
68%


Table 2
Summary of Government Finances
(in Trillions of LL)
Actuals
Estimated
Projected
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
GDP
13.12
15.34
18.06
20.41
22.45
25.14
28.16
31.54
35.33
Revenues
1.86
2.24
3.03
3.53
4.0
5.5
6.2
6.9
7.7
Expenditures
3.02
5.20
5.86
7.29
8.0
7.8
7.8
7.8
7.8
Deficit
1.16
2.96
2.82
3.75
4.0
2.3
1.6
0.9
0.1
Revenue/GDP
14.1%
14.6%
16.8%
17.3%
17.8%
21.9%
22.0%
21.9%
21.8%
Expend/GDP
23.0%
33.9%
32.4%
35.7%
35.6%
31.0%
27.7%
24.7%
22.1%
Deficit / GDP
8.9%
19.3%
15.6%
18.4%
17.8%
9.1%
5.7%
2.9%
0.3%
Gross Debt
6.38
10.59
14.08
20.11
24.11
25.41
26.01
26.91
27.01
Net Debt
4.99
7.95
11.38
16.24
20.24
22.54
24.14
25.04
25.14
Gross Debt/GDP
48.6%
69.0%
78.0%
98.5%
107.4%
101.1%
92.4%
85.3%
76.4%
Net Debt/GDP
38.1%
51.8%
63.0%
79.6%
90.2%
89.7%
85.7%
79.4%
71.2%
For GDP (1997-2001) -LCPS estimates. Assumed nominal growth rate of 10% in 1997, and 12% annually for 1998-2001.
For Fiscal data- Ministry of Finance 1993-1996. 1997-2001 LCPS estimates. 1997 based on 8 months actuals. 1998-2001 based on assumptions in text.
For Debt data- 1993-1996: BDL. For 1997-2001 reflects the cumulative deficits over 1996 base. It does not include deficit incurred in foreign currencies. In 1998-1999, financing the deficit includes LL 1 trillion drawdown in each year from public sector deposits.
Source: Ministry of Finance, BDL, and LCPS estimates.


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Table 3
PUBLIC DEBT
(in trillions of LL)
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
June 1997
I- Gross Public Debt
5.18
6.38
10.59
14.08
20.11
23.31
A- Internal Public Debt
4.45
5.82
9.32
12.00
17.23
20.02
Central bank loans
0.42
0.47
0.08
0.10
0.10
0.11
TB
0.12
0.41
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Loans
0.30
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.10
1.13
Commercial bank loans
3.23
4.25
7.35
8.55
12.66
13.61
TB
3.22
4.24
7.34
8.49
12.56
13.51
Loans to public institutions
0.02
0.00
0.04
0.06
0.11
0.10
Others
0.80
1.10
1.90
3.35
4.47
6.30
private sector
0.70
0.92
1.43
2.74
3.28
4.71
public institutions
0.09
0.18
0.45
0.58
0.86
1.06
financial institutions
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.32
0.52
B- External Debt
$ 400 m
$ 327 m
$ 771.8 m
$ 1,304.6 m
$ 1,856 m
$ 2,139.5 m
or
LL 0.56 tr.
LL 1.27 tr.
LL 2.08 tr.
LL 2.88 tr.
LL 3.29 tr.
developmental & governmental institutions
0.36
0.45
1.10
1.12
others
0.20
0.82
1.78
1.92
II- Public Sector Deposits
0.83
1.39
2.64
2.70
3.87
4.58
III- Net Public Sector Debt
4.35
4.99
7.95
11.38
16.24
18.73
For GDP (1997-2001) -LCPS estimates. Assumed nominal growth rate of ten percent in 1997, and 12 percent annually for 1998-2001.
For Fiscal data- Ministry of Finance 1993-1996. 1997-2001 LCPS estimates. 1997 based on eight months actuals. 1998-2001 based on assumptions in text.
For Debt data- 1993-1996: BDL. For 1997-2001 reflects the cumulative deficits over 1996 base. It does not include deficit incurred in foreign currencies. In 1998-1999, financing the deficit includes LL1 trillion withdrawal in each year from public sector deposits.
Source: BDL


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Table 4
Interest Rates
(Per cent at end of period)
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
June 97
3-m TB
13
17.22
13.49
16.01
14.29
13.4
6-m TB
15
19.65
14.83
17.21
16.15
14.21
1-year TB
20.99
21.07
14.73
18.26
17.02
15.2
2-year TB
26
23.99
15.84
23.39
20.54
16.73
Source: BDL


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Table 5
Summary of Balance of Payments
(in millions of $)
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
June 1997
Exports
601
686
743
985
1018
369
Imports
-3786
-4908
-5541
-6755
-7559
-3551
Trade Balance
-3185
-4222
-4798
-5770
-6541
-3182
Net Services
-29
-149
10
36
50 1
25 1
Private Transfers
416
565
685
836
1000 1
500 1
Current account balance
-2798
-3806
-4103
-4898
-5491
-2657
Net capital movements 2
2851
4975
5234
5154
6277
3329
Overall balance
53
1169
1131
256
786
672
1- Estimated by LCPS
2- Including errors and omissions. Calculated as residual.
Source: BDL


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