A Framework for Reducing the Lebanese Budget Deficit

Table of Contents | LET#6: Part 2


Table 11
Summary of Government Finances: 1993-2001
(in Trillions of LL)
Actuals
Estimated
Projected (1)
Revised Projection (2)
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
1998
1999
2000
2001
GDP
13.12
15.34
18.06
20.41
22.45
25.14
28.16
31.54
35.33
25.14
28.16
31.54
35.33
Revenues
1.86
2.24
3.03
3.53
4.0
5.5
6.2
6.9
7.7
4.96
5.83
6.84
8.0
Expenditures
3.02
5.20
5.86
7.3
8.0
7.8
7.8
7.8
7.8
7.94
8.00
8.00
8.00
Deficit
1.16
2.96
2.82
3.75
4.0
2.3
1.6
0.9
0.1
2.98
2.17
1.16
0.00
Revenues/GDP
14.1%
14.6%
16.8%
17.3%
17.8%
21.9%
22.0%
21.9%
21.8%
19.7%
20.7%
21.7%
22.6%
Expenditures/GDP
23.0%
33.9%
32.4%
35.4%
35.6%
31.0%
27.7%
24.7%
22.1%
31.6%
28.4%
25.4%
22.6%
Deficit / GDP
8.9%
19.3%
15.6%
18.1%
17.8%
9.1%
5.7%
2.9%
0.3%
11.9%
7.7%
3.7%
0.0%
Gross Debt
6.38
10.59
14.08
20.11
24.11
25.41
26.01
26.91
27.01
26.09
27.26
28.42
28.42
Net Debt
4.99
7.95
11.38
16.24
20.24
22.54
24.14
25.04
25.14
23.22
25.39
26.55
26.55
Gross Debt/GDP
48.6%
69.0%
78.0%
98.5%
107.4%
101.1%
92.4%
85.3%
76.5%
103.8%
96.8%
90.1%
80.4%
Net Debt/GDP
38.1%
51.8%
63.0%
79.6%
90.1%
89.6%
85.7%
79.4%
71.2%
92.4%
90.2%
84.2%
75.1%
Source:
For GDP- LCPS estimates. Assumed nominal growth rate of 10% in 1997, and 12% annually for 1998-2001.
For Fiscal data- Ministry of Finance 1993-1996. 1997-2001 LCPS estimates. 1997 based on 8 months actuals.
1998-2001 based on assumptions in text.
For Debt data- 1993-1996: BDL. For 1997-2001 reflects the cumulative deficits over 1996 base. It does not include deficit
incurred in foreign currencies. In 1998-1999, financing the deficit includes LL 1 trillion drawndown in each year from public sector deposits.
(1) Hypothetical budget based on element under discussion on September 1997.
(2) Based on Budget Proposal put foreward in October 1997.